From the Newsletter Plays last Week we went 23-20 Overall, not bad. Not great. But we got our First perfect score in the Dolphins - Panthers Game! +7000

While these are the bets I find value in, take a look at the app and find where you find value. Theres a lot of insights and angles there.

These best bets are designed for giving you a play for every game, so if you wanna bet a game, you got some action.

I hated the Ravens Texans game, no confidence in that an I stated that, got 2 losing plays. Really 23 - 18, but I won’t nitpick. Part of doing this newsletter is going to be trial and error. Wins and Loses. Working Week by Week to get better.

Only way to get better at predicting games is… well, predicting games.

Also NEW APP UPDATE AVAILABLE NOW —> HERE

Lines are DraftKings SportsBook as of 5:00 PM on Friday 10/03

Week 5 ML Straight Up Tracking Updated

Record (W-L-T-E) W = Win, L = Loss, T = Tie, E = Excluded

Excluded games are when a non starting QB starts the game. In these games are model in 10 Games this season where a non starting QB starts we are (3-7) ML in these games including Rams vs 49ers on Thursday night Football.

Omitting these riskier, low reward ML plays 1.) Focuses on games with better ML odds 2.) Protects from natural unpredictability we have seen in these games 3.) 72% Winning Predictions (39/54).

While this week we went 3-2 with the excluded non starting qb games which is improvement we still aren’t counting them in the ML Straight analysis.

This week was tough with the ML plays from all the crazy upsets from teams this week.

O/U: Play a total band, set a custom game band parlay -

Over 36.5 - Under 50.5 - play it at +104. ✅

Or similar depending on your risk tolerance for high scoring game or typical lower scoring Thursday night football game. With 49ers QB change I am also leaning towards being more confident in predicting Rams point total landing in the 20-29 point band for tonight. ✅

ML: Rams -485. Rams are going to win this game. The line has moved to much less playable odds. By the time you see this its a much less juicy play. The app told you Rams were going to win when they has -200 odds on Tuesday. Take it as a parlay leg, wish it still had the juice from earlier in the week. ❌

*Non-Starting QB Game (ML Straight Bet Beware)

Spread: MIN -4.5, O/U 36.5

PreSnap Projection: Vikings 25-17 | Total Points 42.1 | Vikings 74.10% Win Prob.

FINAL: Vikings 21 - 17

We got the Vikings ML but laid off because of the Browns new QB. He played well! Almost pulled off the win, but Vikings got it done.

We also got the exact score of Browns right!! Awesome game

Best Bets - Vikings @ Browns

Browns Points: Over 10.5 - Under 20.5 +100 ✅

Vikings Points: Over 16.5 - Under 29.5 -130 ✅

Over 36.5: Market has priced in a low scoring game, taking the over here assuming Gabriel is going to be a slight upgrade to veteran Joe Flacco. +100 ✅

Winning Ticket from Pro User

*Non-Starting QB Game (ML Straight Bet Beware)

Line: Texans -1.5, O/U 40.5

PreSnap Projection: Texans 24-23 | Total 46 | Texans 53.3% Win Prob.

FINAL: Texans 44 - 10

The Texans showed that they still have ball left to play this season. While the Ravens defense was decimated, allowing 40 at home was still out of the question.

We had the Texans winning, but with new QB it was too much of a risk to have as play. So we exclude this pick from our ML plays.

We went against our over projection due to Lamar Jackson not playing, we didn’t think Texans would carry this to the over, good on them. The model thanks them for helping.

Best Bets - Texans @ Ravens

Under 40.5: Does our model project an over? Yes? But it is driven more by Ravens going up against high scoring offenses (Bills & Lions) and assuming Lamar Jackson is playing. I would tease this too a few points and use as a parlay leg. ❌

Texans Total Over 19.5 Under 30.5 ❌

What I said about the game → Honestly this game is very unpredictable with Cooper Rush and the injuries to the Ravens. I would stay away, Texans have only looked good vs the Titans and in the second half of that game. Not much confidence in plays for this match up.

Line: Dolphins -1.5, O/U 45.5

PreSnap Projection: Panthers 27-24 | Total 50.5 | Panthers 61.1% Win Prob.

FINAL: PANTHERS 27 - 24!!!!

Perfect Score, everything hit - Best game of season.

$1 → $71 From a Pro User

Best Bets - Dolphins @ Panthers

Panthers Total Over 19.5 Under 30.5 +108 ✅

Over 40.5 Teaser -202 - Dolphins losing Hill this may impact the ability of this game to go over. ✅

Panthers ML +100 ✅

Panthers Spread +1.5 -115 ✅

Line: Colts -7, O/U 47.5

PreSnap Projection: Colts 28-20 | Total 48.5 | 79.2 Win Probability

FINAL: Colts 40-6

Thought Raiders would have more of a fight, didnt get the colts points due to Colts running up the score.

Best Bets - Raiders @ Colts

Colts Total Points Over 24.5 Under 35.5 -105 ❌

Over 44.5 Teaser ✅

Colts ML ✅

*Non-Starting QB Game (ML Straight Bet Beware)

Line: Saints -1.5, O/U 42.5

PreSnap Projection: Giants 23 - 21 | Total 44 | Giants 62.1% Win Prob.

FINAL: Saints 26 - 14

We knew this game was trouble, Jaxson Dart looked great his first week. Still its hard for Rookies to adjust in NFL. Our model had Giants but with non starting QB we stayed away from the ML here.

Best Bets Giants @ Saints

Over 42.5 ❌

Safe Play: Giants +4.5 ❌

Line: Cowboys -1.5, O/U 47.5

PreSnap Projection: Cowboys 28 - 27 | Total 55 | Cowboys 51%

Final: Cowboys 37 - 22

Best Bets - Cowboys @ Jets

Cowboys ML ✅

Cowboys Total Over 24 Under 32 ❌

Over 47.5 (tease down to your preference) ✅

Cowboys +4.5 for Teaser Play ✅

Line: Eagles -4.5, O/U 43.5

PreSnap Projection: Eagles 25 - 21 | Total 46 | Eagles 65.1% Win Prob.

FINAL: Broncos 21 - 17

Broncos Correct Score ✅

This was a rough game for the Eagles, just couldn’t get it done at home, let the Broncos back in this after leading 17-3. Letting up 18 unanswered points and losing. Granted some bad call from refs but this was on the Eagles. They stink at game management, they let teams score unanswered points like crazy in games.

Best Bets - Broncos @ Eagles

Eagles ML ❌

Eagles Total 21-30 ❌

Broncos +8.5 Teaser ✅

Over 43.5 ❌

Line: Cardinals -7.5, O/U 41.5

FINAL: Titans 22 - 21

PreSnap Projection: Cardinals 27 - 16 | Total 43.5 | Cardinals 88.9% Win Prob.

I am not here to excuse our wrong picks. I’m really not. The Cardinals were up 21-3 in this game. The Titans had a 1.8% win probability going in the fourth quarter down 21-6. The Cardinals had this game won. I wrote it off as a win in my head, up 20, we are good. WRONG.

This is one beat you just sit back and chuckle at. Like there is nothing that could predicted how bad the Cardinals choked this game away. The two key moments that caused the Titans upset were totally self inflicted by the Cardinals.

1.) Emari Demercado TD Fumble Through the Endzone

2.) Cardinals Interception to Fumble into Endzone for Titans TD

Loss is loss. We keep rolling.

Best Bets Titans @ Cardinals

Cardinals ML ❌

Cardinals Total Over 21.5 Points ❌

Titans Total Under 20 Teaser ❌

Line: Seahawks -3.5, O/U 44.5

FINAL: Buccaneers 38 - 35

PreSnap Projection: Seahawks 26 - 21 | Total 48 | Seahawks 77.5% Win Prob

Seahawks were in a great position to win this game. Tied at 35 they had the ball with 1:50 in the game left. Just needed to go down the field and kick a field goal on a team they already put 35 points up against.

Nope, Sam Darnold has a pass hit a lineman helmet, intercepted. Bucs kill clock and kick field goal to win the game. Both teams went tit for tat with eachother. Baker Mayfield played awesome even without Bucky Irving. Roguh showing

Best Bets - Buccaneers @ Seahawks

Seahawks Over 21.5 Under 31.5 ❌

Seahawks ML ❌

Over 44.5 ✅

*Non-Starting QB Game (ML Straight Bet Beware)

Line: Lions -10.5, O/U 49.5

FINAL: Lions 37 - 24

PreSnap Projection: Lions 30 - 21 | Total 51 | Lions 76.5% Win Prob.

Didn’t suggest the over as play as Bengals have been so bad on offense but that ended up hitting as well. Lions handled this as they should. Surprised the Bengals put up over 20 points with how they have been playing.

Best Bets - Lions @ Bengals

Lions ML - while this is categorized as non qb starting game, Browning with his poor performances has been easy to bet against, but it also will not be much reward betting this game straight up. ✅

Lions -7 Teaser ✅

Lions Total Over 26.5 ✅

Line: Chargers -2.5, O/U 47.5

FINAL: Commanders 27 - 10

PreSnap Projection: Chargers 25 - 23 | Total 48 | Chargers 54.5% Win Prob.

Chargers were up 10 - 0 and had a punt return for TD called back on running into the punter (the right call) and an interception in the endzone. Game was closer than the score suggests but Commanders looking more like their usual selves. Chargers have lost two in a row first Giants now the Commanders.

Best Bets - Commanders @ Chargers

Chargers ML ❌

Chargers Total Points 21-30 ❌

Line: Bills -8.5, O/U 49.5

FINAL: Patriots 23 - 20

PreSnap Projection: Bills 26 - 25 | Total 50.5 | Bills 55.1% Win Prob

As a Patriots fan, I’m very happy about this game. Missed the over but able to picks the Pats covering and had them scoring more than 19 points. Played an awesome game, kept it close in the first half and made more plays in the second. Patriots need to show more consistency going forward but beating Buffalo is a major win.

Josh Allen’s redzone interception and Bill turnovers kept this game close for the Pats. Bills also did not establish the run game with Cook only getting 49 rushing yards on 15 carries.

Best Bets - Patriots @ Bills

Bills ML - while there is value in taking the Patriots as underdogs at +330, just don’t make it a heavy play. ❌

Patriots Over 18.5 Points ✅

Bills Total Under 32.5 - Bills did not score more than 32 points vs the Saints, Jets, Dolphins in last 3 games. ✅

Patriots +8.5 (Can also tease this up more) ✅

Over 49.5 ❌

Line: Chiefs -3.5, O/U 45.5

PreSnap Projection: Jaguars 24 - 22 | Total 46 | Jaguars 58.3% Win Prob.

Final: Jaguars 31-28

I faded the model in the newsletter, I big brained myself out of the model pick just to have the model prove me wrong. But I built this model so was I really right? no. From now on I will not fade the model for the rest of the season for any of these picks. I justified it as the model does not really pick up until week 6. Now that we are in week 6, all picks going forward will align with the models and insights from the app. 🫡

Best Bets - Chiefs @ Jaguars

Jaguars +7.5 Teaser ✅

Chiefs ML ❌

Under 47.5 ❌

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