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Going to be looking to put out Newsletters on Wednesday or Thursday going forward.

Before starting, not to downplay our predictions so far, our ML models & locks really go into effect Week 6. We ran the models from historical data of 2022, 2023, and 2024 season and in all three season the models ramp up in accuracy in Week 6, showing they properly capture trends once we have 5 weeks of data.

We have enough data to run our Models this week, but its really Week 6 that the models really start locking in.

Week 5 Picks, going to be going more in-depth with the bets and show how to properly best bet these games based on PreSnap Picks insights and trends we’ve been noticing. After Week 5 we are moving this to upgraded but will be giving out free codes for early subscribers.

Going Forward:

Results Newsletters - Available for Everyone

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Pro Picks - Paywalled (but will give coupon codes for people just ask and I will probably send)

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Lines are DraftKings SportsBook as of 5:00 PM on Friday 10/03

ML: 9-6-1 - not great, but somewhat expected with 7 games in the 50-60% win probability range. New it would be a dicier week, similar to week 3. However, further down we breakdown how excluding certain games we have unpredictability with greatly increasing our odds in these games.

O/U: 10-6 - we have sneakily have been 10-6 on over/unders for 3 weeks in a row, not bad!

Last week we went 13-3 with our Total Ranges, basically the upper and lower bound predictions for total points in a match up. Example Below:

Thursday Night Football:

Along with the team point ranges - using these to bet individual team’s over under points. If we have a close game for the ML winner, look for point totals for plays.

Part of betting with our picks is not betting every game, some games are just projected to be too close, looking to point bands for plays on the game offers an alternative play for users.

Analyze the Team totals projected by vegas, a lot of the time there is over reaction, and you can get good team total over for underdogs, and team total unders for the favorites.

Note: We missed on the Rams, absolutely brutal beat for the ML play, but our best bet from the game was Rams Total 21-30 which HIT! A great play for teams that are projected @ ~25 points!

We have noticed with our picks, when a non starting QB is playing, the unpredictability of the game increases, the ML line is favored against the non-starting QB, making the play not worth the low payout. Rams vs 49ers should have been a game where we laid off of with the ML play, that is on us. More analysis on this finding below.

A great example of betting the bands can be seen below:

As far as ML plays this Season we had a great first two weeks, week 3 was rough, week 4 was ehh. We knew Week 3 & 4 were going to be rough by the number of win probabilities between 50-60% - 7 in each Week 3 & 4, only 5 total in Weeks 1 & 2.

We went back and calculated how much money you would of made after betting $100 straight up excluding games where the starting QB was injured or demoted.

Record (W-L-T-E) W = Win, L = Loss, T = Tie, E = Excluded

Excluded games are when a non starting QB starts the game. In these games are model in 10 Games this season where a non starting QB starts we are (3-7) ML in these games including Rams vs 49ers on Thursday night Football.

Omitting these riskier, low reward ML plays 1.) Focuses on games with better ML odds 2.) Protects from natural unpredictability we have seen in these games 3.) 72% Winning Predictions (39/54).

BONUS: A play we have been loving is the First Half Unders in games, under 24 points. A lot of our Under plays from Tuesday this week have shifted to the over because of line movements.

Teams are usually slow to start, ramp up scoring in the second half after 1.) Halftime Adjustments 2.) More desperation late in the game. ‘

Okay now onto this weeks picks!

*Non-Starting QB Game (ML Straight Bet Beware)

Spread: MIN -4.5, O/U 36.5

PreSnap Projection: Vikings 25-17 | Total Points 42.1 | Vikings 74.10% Win Prob.

Vikings are playing the Browns in London. Dillon Gabriel is starting for the Browns for his first start in an international game. We haven’t seen much of him but in the preseason he went 20/22 passing with a sub 2 second time to throw. Which would be an upgrade in mobility and passing time instead of Joe Flacco.

Upside to Browns in their defense, and to their credit they have played the Lions, Packers, Bengals (with Burrow), and Ravens. Basically one of the hardest schedules so far this season for any NFL team.

Have the Browns looked bad this season? Against the Lions and Ravens, yes, against the Packers and Bengals? No. They kept those teams to under 20 points, upset the Packers (given a blocked field goal) and missed a field goal to take a win from the Bengals.

Vikings, coming off of a tough loss to the Steelers in in Dublin. Their offensive line did not hold up vs TJ Watt and the Steelers. Now they are going up against the Browns who have a stronger defensive line than the Steelers.

With the Rookie QB starting, the offensive productivity of the Browns is somewhat unpredictable as it can provide a boost (Jaxson Dart) or stagnation (JJ McCarthy).

Vikings have had an easier schedule compared to the Browns, the Browns are poised to come back from a rough Detroit outing with a grind it out win similar to bouncing back after the Ravens game and beating the Packers? Do we see this repeat itself. Its hard to consider given the Browns aura as a franchise.

Best Bets - Vikings @ Browns

Browns Points: Over 10.5 - Under 20.5 +100

Vikings Points: Over 16.5 - Under 29.5 -130

Over 36.5: Market has priced in a low scoring game, taking the over here assuming Gabriel is going to be a slight upgrade to veteran Joe Flacco. +100

*Non-Starting QB Game (ML Straight Bet Beware)

Line: Texans -1.5, O/U 40.5

PreSnap Projection: Texans 24-23 | Total 46 | Texans 53.3% Win Prob.

This game is gross. I do not want to bet this game. Ravens are dealing with Lamar Jackson injury compounded by a bunch of other injuries on the roster. Texans have improved their offense by finding their running game last week and now go against a Ravens Defense who is not covering the run as well plus many D injuries.

Both of these teams are going to be looking to establish the run to control the game pace and manage the game. The Ravens are likely to use Derrick Henry as much as they can.

Game projections here are a bit skewed with model assuming that Lamar Jackson is playing. Texans are coming off of their only win of the season to a very unimpressive Titans teams. While the Ravens are banged up after playing the Bills, Browns, Lions, and Chiefs.

Best Bets - Texans @ Ravens

Under 40.5: Does our model project an over? Yes? But it is driven more by Ravens going up against high scoring offenses (Bills & Lions) and assuming Lamar Jackson is playing. I would tease this too a few points and use as a parlay leg.

Texans Total Over 19.5 Under 30.5

Bonus: First Half Under

Honestly this game is very unpredictable with Cooper Rush and the injuries to the Ravens. I would stay away, Texans have only looked good vs the Titans and in the second half of that game. Not much confidence in plays for this match up.

Line: Dolphins -1.5, O/U 45.5

PreSnap Projection: Panthers 27-24 | Total 50.5 | Panthers 61.1% Win Prob.

Dolphins have lost their top receiver in Tyreek Hill. Waddle is going to get more action and continue to get production with De’Von Achane. Panther went from “so back” after the Falcons game, to “so cooked” after the blowout loss to the Patriots.

Panthers are up and down and after being down last week on the road expect them to comeback with a win vs the Dolphins missing their top offensive WR.

Best Bets - Dolphins @ Panthers

Panthers Total Over 19.5 Under 30.5 +108

Over 40.5 Teaser -202 - Dolphins losing Hill this may impact the ability of this game to go over.

Panthers ML +100

Panthers Spread +1.5 -115

Line: Colts -7, O/U 47.5

PreSnap Projection: Colts 28-20 | Total 48.5 | 79.2 Win Probability

Both Teams mostly healthy, both teams coming off of a loss. Expect the Colts to win this game. Pretty simple match up, shouldn’t be any surprises. Jeanty has finally gotten going for the Raiders. They gave the Bears a good game that came down to the last play.

Colts could have pulled off the upset vs the Rams, just a few plays short and a fumble out of the back of the endzone. Expect the Colts to bounce back with a win here vs the Raiders.

Best Bets - Raiders @ Colts

Colts Total Points Over 24.5 Under 35.5 -105

Over 44.5 Teaser

Colts ML

*Non-Starting QB Game (ML Straight Bet Beware)

Line: Saints -1.5, O/U 42.5

PreSnap Projection: Giants 23 - 21 | Total 44 | Giants 62.1% Win Prob.

Giants are presumed underdogs vs a winless Saints whose advantage comes from their home field and good game vs the Bills last week. Nabers is out for the season and a big miss for the Giants.

Saints need a win and while their unit gave the Bills more of a game than expected, they still have a lot to work on especially with the offensive line. Giants with a full team effort to win over the Chargers at home. The last time Giants were on the road it was for the OT barn burner in Dallas - where they came more than ready to play.

Our projections are leaning towards Giants in this game. But also if the Saints are going to win a game this year, its likely going to be against a team similar to the Giants situation (new QB & without top receiver).

Best Bets Giants @ Saints

Over 42.5

Safe Play: Giants +4.5

Line: Cowboys -1.5, O/U 47.5

PreSnap Projection: Cowboys 28 - 27 | Total 55 | Cowboys 51%

The Cowboys ‘won’ a tie last week vs the Packers in an insane Sunday Night Football matchup. They do not have a good defense, Jets do not have a steady offense. However the Cowboys showed their offense can carry their team.

This prediction hinges on the Cowboys offense being as good as they have been in weeks recent and their defense to not be abysmal. Jets are at home as underdogs as +1.5 dog. Braelon Allen got injured against the Dolphins is a pretty significant hit to the Jets offense.

Our models have this as a very close game, mostly because of the Cowboys poor defensive performances over the last couple of weeks. If their offense does not continue at their same efficiency we could see an upset here.

3 out of 5 models chose Cowboys, 2 chose the Jets, leaning Cowboys but definitely Jets have a change if Cowboys defense comes out flat.

Best Bets - Cowboys @ Jets

Cowboys ML

Cowboys Total Over 24 Under 32

Over 47.5 (tease down to your preference)

Cowboys +4.5 for Teaser Play

Line: Eagles -4.5, O/U 43.5

PreSnap Projection: Eagles 25 - 21 | Total 46 | Eagles 65.1% Win Prob.

Denver had a walk in the park last week vs the Bengals and Eagles dominated then watch the Buccaneers almost come back on them. Eagles have had some close games but have always found out a way to come out on top.

A lot of the Eagles recent games have been high scoring affairs in back to back weeks. Broncos aren’t a bad team but the amount of penalties their O-line had Monday night can’t return for this game if they want to cover the spread.

Bo Nix is really big factor in this game, he misses key passes at times and struggles with consistency. The Broncos have a solid defense, the Eagles are struggling with passing in games but as before, Eagles figure out a way to win. Plus the tush push advantage is undeniable.

Best Bets - Broncos @ Eagles

Eagles ML

Eagles Total 21-30

Broncos +8.5 Teaser

Over 43.5

Line: Cardinals -7.5, O/U 41.5

PreSnap Projection: Cardinals 27 - 16 | Total 43.5 | Cardinals 88.9% Win Prob.

Cardinals are down to their third string running back after Conner and Benson injuries. Cam Ward and the Titans have been struggling hard, and their offensive line has not been helping him out. They are coming off getting shutout by the Texans and Cam Ward declaring the team as “a$$”.

Cardinals is at home, Kyler Murray usually can rely on a steady running game to help him through games. Kyler shows inconsistency at times with passing and when against the Seahawks last week he struggled to find chemistry with Marvin Harrison Jr. until his touchdown.

Expect Kyler to really try to improve on his chemistry with Harrison this game, he has not been a deep ball threat and their team has relied on 5-15 yard passes. More targets to TE Trey McBride as they will not be as reliant on the run game with their 3rd string RB in.

Stay away from the over in this game as it relies on Titans to give some offensive productivity and with how they have struggled as of recent its risky.

Best Bets Titans @ Cardinals

Cardinals ML

Cardinals Total Over 21.5 Points

Titans Total Under 20 Teaser

Line: Seahawks -3.5, O/U 44.5

PreSnap Projection: Seahawks 26 - 21 | Total 48 | Seahawks 77.5% Win Prob

Bucky Irving and Mike Evans are out for the Buccaneers. Sam Darnold has had a great handle on the Seahawks offense and is showing great consistency. He is playing well, Buccaneers have not had the best passing defense, and Sam Darnold is great at attacking the middle of the field where Buccaneers struggle.

Baker Mayfield has a clutch factor to him that is undeniable, however missing key offensive weapons that help him in those moments. Emeka Egbuka is playing great but will need to come up big in this game to have the Bucs stay in this game. Seahawks also have the home field advantage, Baker is a fighter, but expecting him to lose this one.

Best Bets - Buccaneers @ Seahawks

Seahawks Over 21.5 Under 31.5

Seahawks ML

Over 44.5

*Non-Starting QB Game (ML Straight Bet Beware)

Line: Lions -10.5, O/U 49.5

PreSnap Projection: Lions 30 - 21 | Total 51 | Lions 76.5% Win Prob.

Bengals look terrible, the vibes are terrible, their QB is terrible. Bengals O line barley helps out Joe Burrow and now they are feeding Jake Browning to the Lions (literally). The Lions defense is only getting better as the season goes on. They do not take it easy on their opponents. It seems they run up the score in games mercilessly more than any other team.

The Bengals seem like they have no fight to them. I honestly do not know how the spread is not more here with how bad the Bengals are playing. We have Detroit as a mortal lock to win this game.

With how bad the Bengals offense is I do not recommend taking the over in this game, it implies that the Bengals have enough offensive consistency to put boards on the board, and they don’t.

Best Bets - Lions @ Bengals

Lions ML - while this is categorized as non qb starting game, Browning with his poor performances has been easy to bet against, but it also will not be much reward betting this game straight up.

Lions -7 Teaser

Lions Total Over 26.5

Line: Chargers -2.5, O/U 47.5

PreSnap Projection: Chargers 25 - 23 | Total 48 | Chargers 54.5% Win Prob.

Jayden Daniels is back but without Terry McLaurin for this game. Both teams coming off losses last week looking to bounce back. Chargers lost Joe Alt dealing another big blow to their offensive line. Chargers were probably one turnover away from winning their game vs the Giants. Still put together a strong performance.

The Chargers have a better receiving core that is putting up great numbers this season. They have the defense, Daniels will be playing not at 100% given he is coming back from injury.

Best Bets - Commanders @ Chargers

Chargers ML

Chargers Total Points 21-30

Line: Bills -8.5, O/U 49.5

PreSnap Projection: Bills 26 - 25 | Total 50.5 | Bills 55.1% Win Prob

The Bills are 4-0, they do amazing things week to week. However, they have been shaky at times. They have had an extremely easy schedule only playing the Saints, Jets, and Dolphins last 3 weeks. And Saints game was close for much of the game. Dolphins kept things interesting, and Ravens were on the verge of blowing them out until their insane comeback.

The Patriots have been a team thats hard to read, they have not had the hardest schedule either, going against the Raiders, Panthers, Dolphins, and Steelers so far this year. Last week was a great win, while it was against the Panthers, they really executed well besides letting up a touchdown the first drive of the game.

When the Patriots have good pass protection like in the games vs Miami and Panthers, they have won, when they do not have it, they lose. It will be a test for Will Campbell going against Nick Bosa.

This is the biggest test of the season for the Patriots to prove themselves, going into Buffalo as divisional underdogs. Josh Allen has owned the Patriots for what not seems like forever, I expect Buffalo to win this game.

Best Bets - Patriots @ Bills

Bills ML - while there is value in taking the Patriots as underdogs at +330, just don’t make it a heavy play.

Patriots Over 18.5 Points

Bills Total Under 32.5 - Bills did not score more than 32 points vs the Saints, Jets, Dolphins in last 3 games.

Patriots +8.5 (Can also tease this up more)

Over 49.5

Line: Chiefs -3.5, O/U 45.5

PreSnap Projection: Jaguars 24 - 22 | Total 46 | Jaguars 58.3% Win Prob.

This prediction is one that while the numbers back it up, the strength of schedule for these two teams have been much different. Chiefs have played Chargers, Giants, Eagles, and Ravens. Jaguars have played Bengals, Panthers, Texans, and 49ers.

The Jaguars have been impressive so far this season for the Jaguars standards, the Chiefs have under performed through the first three weeks but that was with Worthy injured and looked like themselves after their Ravens win.

This is the biggest upset we are predicting this week. Our model like the Jags, there is nothing we can do about it. This is the biggest test of the season for the Jaguars.

Our Models for this game have this game close, I think Kansas City wins, they just looked too good against the Ravens last week. Am I betting against the Model? Yes. This seems to be classic case of where the models shows weakness early in the season, not accounting for strength of schedule and with limited data.

For the Jaguars to pull off this upset, the will need 1.) Trevor Lawrence to play a great game. 2.) Liam Coen to coach an awesome scheme 3.) Running Game effective for controlling the clock and game management. 4.) Refs not to bail out the Chiefs.

Best Bets - Chiefs @ Jaguars

Jaguars +7.5 Teaser

Chiefs ML

Under 47.5

Bonus: First Half Under

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