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Lines are DraftKings Sportsbook as of 1:00 PM on Friday 9/26
Vikings @ Steelers (in Dublin)
Line: MIN -2.5, O/U 40.5
PreSnap Projection Vikings 23-22, Total Points 45, Vikings 52.10% WP
We have the Vikings close, definitely going to be a close one.
The angle with the best MOV is the total, with almost 5 full points projected over the line of 40.5.
A 52.10% Winning Probability would suggest to take the + money as you get some value with a near 50/50 projection. Our 50-60% Probabilities are true toss ups, so we recommend the value on the dog when it’s that close.
Commanders @ Falcons
Line: ATL -2.5, O/U 43.5
PreSnap Projection: WAS 28-25, Total 53, Commanders 59.3% WP
Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin are questionable, but the line movement would lead you to believe they are sitting out. With Mariota we still like the Commanders in this one, with the probability under 60% I’d be careful in this one. We have a 10 point Over cover, if you want to bet this game we feel best about the over.
Browns @ Lions
Line: DET -10, O/U 44.5
PreSnap Projection: DET 30-20, Total 50, DET 79% WP
Lions at a 79% win probability with a projected double-digit cushion. Model leans Over by 4.5 points.
Titans @ Texans
Line: HOU -7, O/U 38.5 |
PreSnap Projection: HOU 22-16, Total 39.5
Texans hold a 79% win probability and are favored more heavily than the market. Total matches the line exactly, no edge. Teaser Opportunity.
Panthers @ Patriots
Line: NE -5.5, O/U 42.5
PreSnap Projection: CAR -1, Total 47.3
Panthers flip the market with a 55% win probability despite being underdogs. Model leans Over by 3.8 points. Good opportunity to tease Panthers with points and good value with ML but not a high confidence play.
Chargers @ Giants
Line: LAC -6, O/U 43.5
PreSnap Projection: LAC -4, Total 46.4
Chargers hold a 64% win probability and project to cover. Modest Over signal vs the market. Giants starting Rookie QB Jaxson Dart brings uncertainty to this game likely to favor Chargers in match up.
Eagles @ Buccaneers
Line: PHI -3.5, O/U 44.5
PreSnap Projection: PHI -5, Total 50.7
Eagles have a 76% win probability with solid cover value. Model shows heavy Over lean of +7.2 points.
Colts @ Rams
Line: LAR -3.5, O/U 49.5
PreSnap Projection: IND -1, Total 50.6
Colts flip the market with a 56% win probability. Projection edges slightly Over the posted total. Take the Dog for the value but not a high confidence pick as Rams are the best competition Colts have faced this year. Opportunity to tease Colts with some points for a safe play.
Jaguars @ 49ers
Line: SF -3, O/U 46.5
PreSnap Projection: JAX -3, Total 45.6
Jaguars buck the line with a 66% win probability and a projected road win. Model favors the Under. Good opportunity to tease Jaguars spread with some points and good value on the ML play.
Ravens @ Chiefs
Line: BAL -2.5, O/U 48.5
PreSnap Projection: BAL -4, Total 54.0
Ravens show a 66% win probability despite being on the road. Projection leans strongly Over by 6.5 points.
Bears @ Raiders
Line: LV -1.5, O/U 47.5 | PreSnap Projection: CHI -1, Total 44.0
Bears hold a razor-thin 51% win probability in a coin flip game. Model lands solidly on the Under. Not a high confidence play, expect a close game, a wager on this game going to overtime would not be out of the question.
Packers @ Cowboys
Line: GB -7, O/U 47.5
PreSnap Projection: GB -6, Total 44.2
Packers show a commanding 76% win probability, a similar landing to the Vegas line. Projection leans Under by 3.3.
Jets @ Dolphins
Line: MIA -2.5, O/U 45.5
PreSnap Projection: MIA -1, Total 49.6
Dolphins squeak out a 51% win probability, essentially a coin flip. Total leans Over by 4 points. Another potential game to go to Overtime.
Bengals @ Broncos
Line: DEN -7.5, O/U 44.5 | PreSnap Projection: DEN -5, Total 44.8
Broncos sit at a 65% win probability with a 5-point cushion but not a cover. Total aligns almost exactly with market.
Parlay Zone
Let’s build parlays using only the model edges we identified (Panthers, Jaguars, Colts, Commanders, Eagles, Ravens).
✅ Single Team Value Pool (Best WP Value vs ML)
Panthers +195
Jaguars +140
Colts +160
Commanders +114
Eagles -192
Ravens -148
📊 Parlay Options
2-Leg Parlay (High confidence)
Ravens -148 + Eagles -192
Parlay odds ≈ +170
Both have model WP > market, and safer than dogs.
3-Leg Parlay (Mix of fave + dogs)
Eagles -192 + Ravens -148 + Jaguars +140
Parlay odds ≈ +650
Jaguars add big upside with huge model edge.
4-Leg Parlay (Aggressive value build)
Panthers +195 + Colts +160 + Jaguars +140 + Commanders +114
Parlay odds ≈ +3,500 (35/1)
Pure underdog model-value stack. Massive upside, but volatile.
🎯 Recommendation
2-leg = safer bankroll builder
3-leg = balanced risk/reward
4-leg = lotto ticket, but based entirely on model edges
Here’s the Whole Board with WP and Projections
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