🌟 Editor's Note
Rolling onto Week 7.
So far on the year with DraftKings final lines these are our stats for our Score Projections/Estimations through Week 6 on Spreads, O/U, and ML.
We track the Score Estimation ML predictions here but we are using our Machine Learning models for our Official ML picks going forward, we just want to track this, see how it does.
In Week 6 we went 60% ATS from the point projections. The Win % for ATS and O/U varies based on final spread, these are just using draftkings as baseline.
NOTE: Our Points Projection is not our official pick. It’s used as a way to project score with teams in first 5 weeks of season while we wait for team data to come it for the current season (which it now has so we use our Lock System below).
PRESNAP LOCKS REVIEW
Our Machine Learning Models Kicked Off Week 6 Officially - we had an okay week with them.
Lock Level | Explanation | # of Models |
|---|---|---|
Lean Lock | When a majority of models project a winner, there are 2+ ties projected, and 2 of the 3 remaining predictions | 2+ Models Agree |
Lock | When 3 of the 5 Models Predict the same winner | 3+ Models Agree |
Strong Lock | When 4 of 5 Models Predict a Winner | 4+ Models Agree |
Mortal Lock | When all 5 Models Predict the same Winner | All 5 Models Agree |
Lock Breakdown: Locks are confidence levels we give our picks based on how many models have that agree on an overall winner. Lean lock when majority of models agree but sometime there can be multiple ties and then a deal breaking it the majority of models. Lock implies at least 2 of 5 models predicting the other team to win or a tie. Strong Lock is 4 out of 5 models agreeing, MORTAL LOCKS are when all 5 models agree on the pick.
In 2024, we had 4 Weeks where are MORTAL LOCKS went undefeated between Week 6 and 17.
Week 11 (6/6)
Week 13 (10/10)
Week 15 (6/6)
Week 17 (4/4)
ML Lock Breakdown from Week 6
Lean Lock: (9-6) 60%
Locks: (9-5) 64.29%
Strong Locks: (6-5) 54.5%
Mortal Locks: (5-3) 62.5%
Top Algorithm Week 6: ALGO G - 64.29% 9-5
The two underdog upsets on Monday definitely hurt. With our models taking the favorites in those games. No matter we move forward, looking for a rebound week for a models.
If you haven’t yet.
Game Odds are Draftkings Sportsbook as of 2:22pm Thursday 10/16/2025
TNF - Steelers @ Bengals*
*Non Starting QB Game
Sportsbook - Spread: Steelers -5.5 | Total: O/U 44.5
PreSnap Projections - Steelers 29-19 | Total 47.9 | Steelers 84% Win Prob.
We have the all the models projecting a Steelers win, however this is technically a New QB game because of Joe Flacco starting for the Bengals which brings uncertainty as the data used for prediction include Jake Browning led Bengals.
PreSnap Mortal Lock: Steelers (5 out of 5 Models)
PreSnap Picks
Steelers ML
Steelers -5.5
Over 43.5
200+ Odds ATD: Tee Higgins | Jonnu Smith
Rams @ Jaguars
Sportsbook - Spread: Rams -3 | Total: O/U 44.5
PreSnap Projections: Rams 24 - 21 | Total 45 | Rams 60% Win Probability
London game, we are pretty on the money with vegas here, we have the models having Jaguars covering the spread in the majority of the models. We have a slight ML value to the Jaguars in this game, but majority of the models projecting the Rams to win.
PreSnap Lock: Rams (3 out of 5 Models)
PreSnap Picks
Jaguars +3
Rams ML
Total o37.5 - u52.5
Over 44.5
200+ Odds ATD: Tyler Higbee | Hunter Long
Saints @ Bears
Sportsbook - Spread: Bears -4.5 | Total: O/U 46.5
PreSnap Projections: Bears 27 - 24 | Total 50.5 | Bears 61.3% Win Probability
PreSnap Mortal Lock: Bears (5 out of 5 Models)
Best Bets
Over 46.5
Bears ML
Saints +4.5
200+ Odds ATD: Taysom Hill | Caleb Williams
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