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PreSnap Projections: Seahawks 21-19

Win Probability: 56.5%

This is one of those 50-60% win probability games from last week that gave us a headache. In weeks 1 and 2 we had 5 of these games and went 3-2 predicting winners, in Week 3 we had 7 and went 2-4 with one game omission.

While our model is nearly identical to the Vegas line, its a difficult game to predict. The Cardinals suffered a loss of their dependable running back James Conner and their receiving core dropped key passes at a surprising rate last week.

While the Seahawks scored 38 points in the first half of the Saints game, very much establishing their offensive prowess, the Cardinals vs Saints Week 1 nearly had the game slip away by a late game drive by the Saints. Also if you look in the PreSnap App the last 5 match ups the Seahawks have won 5-0.

A breakdown of their Common Opponents from Week 1-3 this year.

The clear advantage from this small sample is that 1.) Yes they basically have identical defensive performances in these match ups. 2.) Seahawks offense looks more performant from recent performances and also Cardinals have set an offensive set back losing their starting running back.

ML: Seahawks -122.

While it is not the biggest win probability we would like. It feels like a good bet based on the Seahawks 5-0 record vs the Cardinals. A resurgence of their offense, and a key injury to the Cardinals’ starting running back.

O/U: Under 43.5

Seahawks have kept Offenses to less than 20 points so far this year. The Cardinals have not scored more than 21 points vs the Seahawks in their last 5 match up. We are hoping that trend continues. Going into Thursday night game notorious for slow games. When they played the same divisional opponent they totaled 30 & 31 points in each match up.

PreSnap Projections: Vikings 23-22

Win Probability: 52.1%

ML: Vikings -148.

Vikings coming off of a win and a revitalization with Carson Wentz, as they have effortlessly handle QB changes with their team. Vikings looked up to speed vs the Bengals last weeks after struggling with the Bears and Falcons with JJ McCarthy at QB. Vikings expected to get the win but I would not consider them as a “Lock”.

O/U: Over 41.5.

For some reason the over under lines for Steeler games are always lower assuming the Pittsburgh defense steps up at home, they haven’t been good besides last week getting 5 turnover vs the Patriots.

PreSnap Projections: Commanders 28-25

Win Probability: 59.3%

Jayden Daniels may come back for this game giving the Commanders an obvious advantage in this match up. Even without Daniels the Commanders still put up an impressive offensive performance last week. Falcons looked terrible vs the Panthers but still put up more yards of offense than panthers, they just suffered from turnovers and a pick six.

ML: Commanders -112.

Commanders have won their last 3 match ups vs the Atlanta Falcons. If they have Jayden Daniels expect the line to move, I am thinking they are probably going to have him for this game. They are dead even in odds but advantage leans toward the Commanders.

O/U: Over 44.5

Falcons are poised for an offensive comeback from their embarrassing shutout vs the Panthers. Now at home they are looking for a resurgence in offense. The Commanders shown they can still put up 40 points without Jayden Daniels vs the Raiders defense which is no walk in the park.

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