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Spread: Commanders +3.5. This is a close call for us, having the Packers winning by 3 with our projections. Commanders had a decisive victory week one vs Giants but it seemed like a scrimmage - Jayden Daniels is much more mobile than Goff (Packers Week 1 Opponent QB) and has 102 passer rating under pressure.

O/U: Under 48. Both defenses rank well (Commanders 6th, Packers 13th), Commanders' improved run defense, Packers Pass rush upgrade, aligning with balanced tempos and historical unders in similar matchups and historic lower than average scoring on Thursday night match ups.

ML: Packers -182. Higher win probability from top-4 power rank, home dominance (31-11 SU last 5 years), and Love's clean-pocket efficiency at Lambeau outweigh Daniels' consistency; slight H2H edge (22-17-1) and tougher SOS adjustment make Packers the value outright winner.

PreSnap Projections: Packers 25-22

Spread: Browns +11.5. Cleveland's top-10 defense ranks high enough to contain Baltimore's offense somewhat, keeping the margin under 12 in a divisional rivalry where games average closer (historical ATS favors dogs in Browns-Ravens). Negative EPA for Cleveland limits blowout risk, and home-field value is offset by Baltimore's defensive vulnerabilities. Take the divisional dog.

O/U: Under 45. Cleveland's inefficient offense (negative EPA run/pass) and Baltimore's run-heavy style suggest a grind-it-out game. Defensive rankings (Browns 9th) and historical unders in rivalry matchups (6 of last 10 under) support limited points, expect a run heavy game. If Baltimore gets ahead in the game expect them to go into game management mode, Browns offense unlikely to lead to shootout similar to Bills vs Ravens game last week.

ML: Ravens -771. Baltimore's elite power ranking (top-3), QB edge (Jackson top-5 vs. Flacco bottom-10) and home advantage, a give ~85% win probability. Trends as favorites and Browns' poor underdog record (4-6 SU) outweigh longshot value on Cleveland.

PreSnap Projections: Ravens 28-14

Spread: Jaguars +3.5. Jaguars' superior defense (2nd rank, strong EPA vs. pass) and balanced offense exploit Bengals' struggling unit (negative EPA, OL injury), providing margin edge as road underdogs with strong ATS trends; close projected line suggests value in keeping it within a field goal.

O/U: Under 48.5. Both teams' strong defenses (top-10 ranks) limit scoring potential, as seen in low-output Week 1 games; Bengals' offense inefficiencies and Jaguars' tempo control favor lower totals, aligning with early-season defensive trends.

ML: Bengals -182. Bengals' home advantage, Burrow's edge under pressure, and higher overall power rank (13th vs. 20th) give them outright win probability despite offensive woes, with historical Week 2 favoritism and close series history tilting toward the favorite.

PreSnap Projections: Bengals 23-20

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